Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
